Clean Heat Market Mechanism: Heat Pump Target Could Rise to 18% by 2030/31

What happened: the Clean Heat Market Mechanism plan in full

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero published the consultation on Monday 12 October 2026. It covers the Clean Heat Market Mechanism, which has been in force since 1 April 2025.

The scheme places a target on manufacturers that sell fossil fuel boilers in the UK. For each scheme year, a manufacturer has to hold credits for qualifying heat pump installations, in proportion to its relevant boiler sales. The target was 6% in the first year, 2025/26, and is 8% in the current year, 2026/27.

The new document proposes setting the target four years ahead, for scheme years 3 to 6, instead of year by year. It also proposes extending the scheme rules by three years, so the scheme would run to 31 March 2032 rather than 31 March 2029.

Two other changes are proposed. Heat pumps fitted in new build homes, which do not count for credits at the moment, would start to count from 2027/28 if they are certified under the Microgeneration Certification Scheme. And manufacturers would keep the current flexibility to carry forward up to 35% of a yearly target into the next year.

The key numbers

Our own check of the scale, worked from the figures in the consultation document: the four proposed years add up to up to 708,000 heat pumps in total (118,000 + 157,000 + 197,000 + 236,000). The proposed 18% target for 2030/31 is also three times the 6% target the scheme started with in 2025/26.

The document links the proposed path to a wider government ambition of more than 450,000 heat pump installations a year by 2030, of which about 250,000 would be in existing homes. It also notes that about 89% of existing UK homes have the water based central heating systems that the heat pumps covered by the scheme are designed for.

What it means for your money

Nothing changes in your bills today. This is a consultation, not a decision, and the targets in it fall on manufacturers, not on households. The consultation proposes no charge, levy or bill for a household that keeps its current boiler.

There is also no deadline in the document for anyone to remove a working boiler. If your boiler is working, this consultation gives you nothing you have to do, and no date you have to do it by.

Where it could matter later is choice and supply. If the proposed targets are confirmed, manufacturers would need a much larger heat pump business by 2030/31, and new build installations would count towards it for the first time. The document also explores a one off award of 10,000 extra credits for manufacturers that commit at least £10 million to UK heat pump manufacturing, as one way to support UK supply chains. These are proposals to comment on, not prices or offers you can use today.

Anyone can respond to the consultation, including households, consumer groups and heating firms, and responses close on Sunday 8 November 2026. For day to day energy costs while you wait, see our Money Weather page, which tracks the prices that actually move your bills.

Clean Heat Market Mechanism: your questions answered

Has the 18% heat pump target been decided? No. It is a proposal in a consultation that opened on 12 October 2026 and closes on 8 November 2026. The targets for 2025/26 and 2026/27, at 6% and 8%, are the ones already set.

Do I have to replace my gas or oil boiler because of this scheme? No. The scheme sets credit targets for manufacturers based on their boiler sales. The consultation document sets no replacement deadline for households and proposes no household charge.

What happens if a manufacturer misses its target? Under the proposal, the payment in lieu would stay at £500 for each missing credit. As a worked example from that figure, a shortfall of 100 credits would mean a £50,000 payment by that manufacturer. It is a manufacturer payment, not a bill sent to its customers under the scheme.

Which heat pumps would count? The scheme is focused on domestic scale water based heat pumps, and the document proposes keeping air to air heat pumps, heat batteries and heat network interface units out of it for now. New build installations would count from 2027/28 under the proposals, if certified.

Source: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, Clean Heat Market Mechanism: revisions ahead of the 2027/28 scheme year, consultation published on GOV.UK on 12 October 2026, including the full consultation document. All figures above are from that primary source. The totals and the payment example are our own arithmetic, as labelled.