Bank of England Base Rate Forecast: What Happens Next?

The Bank of England base rate forecast matters because it sets the direction for tracker mortgages, variable savings rates and, through market swap rates, fixed mortgage deals too. This page explains where Bank Rate is now, what happens next, what forecasters and markets disagree about, and what each outcome would cost or earn you in pounds.

By Emily Harrington. Last checked: 21 October 2026. Sources: Bank of England and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), linked at the point of each claim. This page will be updated after the 5 November decision.

What is the Bank of England base rate now?

Bank Rate is 3.75%, and it has been at that level since December 2025. The Bank of England’s own Monetary Policy Committee dates page lists the current rate as 3.75% and the next decision as due on 5 November 2026. It is the rate the Bank pays on deposits held by commercial banks, and it anchors almost every other interest rate in the UK.

When Bank Rate moves, tracker mortgages move by the same amount, usually within a month. Standard variable rates often follow, though lenders choose how much to pass on. Fixed mortgage rates are different: lenders price them from swap rates, which reflect where markets think Bank Rate is heading, so fixed deals can rise before the Bank acts, and fall before it cuts.

Savings rates sit on the other side of the same coin. Easy access savings rates tend to follow Bank Rate with a lag, while fixed savings bonds are priced off the expected path, much like fixed mortgages.

When is the next Bank of England decision?

The next decision is on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 12 noon UK time. The Bank publishes the MPC summary, the meeting minutes and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report together that day, which makes November the most important remaining decision of the year: it is the moment the Bank updates its own forecasts for inflation and growth in public.

The full confirmed schedule is on the Bank of England website, in its MPC dates announcement for 2026. You can also track every release date on our UK economic calendar.

What did the Bank decide in September 2026?

The MPC voted 6 to 3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% at its meeting ending 16 September 2026, announced on 17 September. The three members in the minority voted for an immediate rise of 0.25 points, to 4%. That split is the single most important fact in any base rate forecast right now: the argument inside the Bank is no longer about when to cut, but about whether a rise is needed.

The majority held because higher energy prices had not yet fed through into wages and wider prices. The minority judged that waiting carried its own risk. Both camps are watching the same two things: energy prices, and whether they start to lift pay settlements and services prices. If that second round appears, the case for a rise strengthens fast.

For background on how the rate is set and what it is, see our explainer on the Bank of England base rate.

Bank of England base rate forecast: what happens next?

No forecaster knows the next move, and anyone who claims certainty is selling something. What can be laid out honestly is the range of views and what each one rests on. Market pricing in late September pointed to a rise to 4% during the winter and a peak well above that during 2027. Named forecasters were more cautious: some, including Goldman Sachs in September, moved to expect one rise in November and then a long hold; others still expected no change this year at all.

Our judgement, stated plainly so you can hold us to it: hold is the most likely November result, rise is a genuine risk worth planning for, and the December meeting on 17 December is where a rise becomes most likely if the data keeps pushing that way. This forecast will be marked against the actual decision on 5 November and updated on this page.

Why is inflation pushing the forecast up?

CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 2.9% in July, according to the ONS consumer price inflation bulletin for August 2026. Transport, and motor fuel in particular, made the largest upward contribution. The Bank’s target is 2%, so inflation is running more than a point above where the MPC wants it.

Two details matter for the forecast. First, core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, held at 2.6% in August. Second, services inflation was unchanged at 3.4%. In plain terms: the August rise was driven mainly by fuel, not yet by a broad wage and price spiral. That is exactly why the majority voted to wait, and why the September inflation release on 21 October carries so much weight.

The Bank’s July forecasts expected inflation to ease back. If the next two releases instead show energy costs spreading into food, services and pay, the MPC’s own logic points to a rise. If they do not, the hold camp keeps its majority.

What would a rate rise mean for your mortgage?

It depends entirely on your deal type. On a tracker, a 0.25 point rise adds roughly 500 pounds a year of interest on a 200,000 pound balance, before repayments bring the balance down. On a standard variable rate, lenders usually pass on most of a rise. On a fixed deal, nothing changes until your fix ends, but the deals you will be offered at that point are already moving: lenders have been repricing fixed rates upward through the autumn, as we covered in UK mortgage rates rise again.

Worked example, computed by us: a 200,000 pound repayment mortgage over 25 years costs 1,169.18 pounds a month at 5% and 1,198.50 pounds a month at 5.25%. A quarter point on the rate is about 29 pounds a month, or about 352 pounds a year, on that balance and term. Smaller balances scale down in proportion: on 100,000 pounds the same move is roughly 15 pounds a month.

If your fix ends within the next six months, the practical step is to secure a new deal now and keep the option to switch if pricing improves before completion. Our remortgaging guide walks through the timings. This is general information, not personal advice; a regulated mortgage adviser can compare deals for your circumstances.

What would it mean for savers?

A rise is good news for savers, with a catch. Easy access rates usually edge up after a Bank Rate rise, but banks pass rises on more slowly than cuts, and the best rates are rarely the ones your existing account drifts onto. Fixed savings bonds price in expectations early, so the top fixed rates often appear before a rise is confirmed, then soften if the Bank holds instead.

The practical move is the same in both scenarios: check what your savings earn today against the best available rates, and do not leave large balances in accounts paying close to nothing. Our guides to the best savings accounts and best cash ISA rates are refreshed monthly with current figures.

Frequently asked questions

What is the UK bank of England base rate today?

Bank Rate is 3.75%, held at the MPC meeting announced on 17 September 2026. The Bank of England lists the current rate and the next due date, 5 November 2026, on its MPC dates page. It has been unchanged since December 2025, when it was cut from 4%.

Will the base rate go up in November 2026?

A rise to 4% is possible but not certain. Three of nine MPC members already vote for one, so two more would need to switch. Most named forecasters still expect a hold in November, while market pricing leans towards a rise during the winter. The 21 October inflation release is the key data point.

When will interest rates go down again?

Not soon, on current evidence. With inflation at 3.1% and rising energy costs, no forecaster we can verify expects a cut in 2026. Market pricing in autumn 2026 pointed to rates staying at or above current levels through 2027. A cut needs inflation falling back towards 2% and staying there.

Does the base rate change my fixed mortgage?

No. A fixed rate is locked for the deal term, whatever the Bank does. The base rate affects you at remortgage time, because new fixed deals are priced from market expectations of the rate path. Trackers and standard variable rates, by contrast, usually move within weeks of a decision.

How often does the MPC meet?

Eight times a year, roughly every six weeks. Four of those meetings, in February, April or May, July or August and November, also publish a Monetary Policy Report with the Bank’s updated forecasts. The 2026 dates are confirmed on the Bank of England website.

Sources: Bank of England, MPC dates and September 2026 decision; ONS, Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026. Forecast views are attributed to the firms named and market pricing reports from September and October 2026; they are expectations, not guarantees. This article is information only and is not financial advice.